Will they buy or say goodbye? Discover GA4's secret to predicting user behavior

Author

Himanshu Sharma
November 25, 2024

🤔 Will they buy 🛍️ or say goodbye 👋? Discover GA4's secret 🔑 to predicting user behavior 👇

Unlike Universal Analytics, GA4 does not provide a single conversion probability score.

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GA4 defines conversion probability in terms of purchase probability, predicted revenue and churn probability.

GA4 offers the following predictive metrics related to conversion probability:

1) Purchase Probability.

It is the probability that a user active on your website in the last 28 days will make at least one purchase in the next 7 days.

The following are the data requirements to be eligible for 'Purchase Probability':

>> At least 1,000 returning users who triggered the 'purchase' event (or 'in_app_purchase' event) in the last 28 days.

>> At least 1,000 returning users who did not trigger the 'purchase' event (or 'in_app_purchase' event) in the last 28 days.

Note(1): The 'value' and 'currency' parameters must be passed with the 'purchase' event (or 'in_app_purchase' event).

Note(2): Predictive modeling in GA4 relies heavily on "returning users" (not new users or all users) because they provide consistent, reliable and higher-quality data for predictive analytics. So, if you don't get many returning users, you are out of luck.

2) Predicted Revenue.

It is the total predicted revenue from all purchase events within the next 28 days for users active in the last 28 days.

The data requirements to be eligible for 'Predicted Revenue' are the same as those of 'Purchase Probability'.

3) Churn probability.

It is the probability that a user active on your website/app in the last 7 days will not be active in the next 7 days.

Data Requirements:

>> At least 1,000 returning users who were active in the past 7 days and then became inactive in the subsequent 7 days. This group represents users who have churned.

>> At least 1,000 returning users who were active in the past 7 days and remained active in the subsequent 7 days. This group represents users who have not churned.

Note(1): Your GA4 property must consistently meet the required thresholds within a rolling 28-day period for data collection for all predictive metrics, including 'Churn Probability'.

Note(2): You can access predictive metrics in your GA4 property via audience builder or exploration reports.